Seth spare

2021-07-01 21:20:12 MICHIGAN
1 of 4

PA gives me voter registration by party, as does IA, so I used those to model "Party ID" in MI, WI, and MN, where voters don't register by party.

As discussed at length in my threads, Party ID is the best way to predict the trajectory of the next election. PA had monstrous momentum for GOP (21-1 ratio), suggesting huge Trump win in 2020 (and it was right in predicting Trump 2016 win in PA).

You can see in all states, 2008 was peak year for Dems in the regions. 8 years of R president going in, all unions, soft Rs, and record minority turnout put Obama over easily here. All downhill from there, and all momentum to GOP from there. Big move in 2016 when DJT came on.

Models:

Crimson - voted for Romney, then bigger for Trump. According to PA reg, moving GOP.

Red - solid Trump

Purple - Obama county that flipped for Trump or trended.

Others - competitive or D machines. This area is heavily trending R and PA/IA registraitons suggest no change in 2020.

This is how I model MI, WI, MN. Open / Comment

2021-07-01 20:39:55 It never ceases to make me laugh, in a sad way, that I can present data and statistics going back as far as 1896 that have absolutely zero to do with my opinion, and people who disagree and refuse to open eyes say "Well, I know someone who's a lifelong Republican who voted BIDEN!" Yes, and I have 124 years worth of bellwethers, indicators, and trends that were all vaporized in a single week.

The media and government say this election was the most secure ever. The same two entities incapable of basic truth, and utterly exposed and humiliated with the COVID flop and Fauci's exposure as a total fraud. Yet people believe what they say about elections. Open / Comment

2021-07-01 20:05:36 I just got off the phone with Seth Keshel. He's making an in-person trip to New Mexico for a Professor's Record interview! Seth is kind enough to also provide guidance to New Mexicans on our data, and provide insights into how our election was rigged. Open / Comment

2021-07-01 20:05:35 Guys, this is going to be a fun one. Make sure you're keeping up with the professor - someone fighting the fight with the academian palace guards coming for him - "if not you, who?" Open / Comment