2021-02-27 07:52:40
The above is an article from HINDU. Let us discuss some relevant points.
1) The
Flexible Inflation Target Framework i.e. 4% with a tolerance band of +/-2% was decided by the Govt. of India in consultation with RBI in 2016 for five years period i.e. 2016 to 2021 which needs to be reviewed after every five years. That is why this discussion is there in the newspapers.
2)
Trend inflation means
long term inflation derived by removing cyclical effects from business cycles as well as other transitory distortions.
3) Before 2016 (i.e. coming of the FIT framework), long term/trend inflation used to be high in the range of 8%/9% which has now fallen to 3.8% to 4.3% in the last 5 years during FIT framework period.
4) The lower bound of the FIT is 2% and upper bound is 6% and RBI is justifying it and saying that we can keep the same band for the next five years. RBI is saying that if we increase the lower bound from 2% say to 3% then it may be possible that the the actual inflation will move out of the band (i.e. will fall below 3%) quite frequently and RBI will have to take steps. And if the lower bound is kept below 2% say to 1% then it will negatively impact growth. [you should know that certain level of inflation is good for economic growth. Explained in detail in section 2.26 in the book.].
5) When RBI reduces/changes the REPO RATE then it gets transmitted in the deposit rate and lending rates of the banks and other financial institutions through the MONEY MARKET. RBI is saying that when RBI reduced the repo rate it got transmitted to the MONEY MARKET (and then to deposit and lending rate) [section 2.17 in the book] but did not get properly transmitted in the bond markets which means when RBI reduced the repo rate the interest rate on bonds did not decrease that much. [this may be because of less people participation in the bond market and that is why now RBI has allowed individuals to directly participate in the Govt. bond markets]
6) Regarding linking of the lending rate, till 2016 we have BASE RATE mechanism then we moved to MCLR mechanism and then from 1st Oct 2019, for certain category of loans (like housing, personal, retail, MSME) banks moved to "External Benchmark mechanism". When banks moved from MCLR to External Benchmark mechanism (to link their lending rates) then there has been improvement in transmission of repo rate into deposit rate and lending rate but if banks will start linking the lending rate to all category of loans then the transmission will be much faster.
Right now banks are bound to link some category of lending rates with external benchmark rate (like repo rate) but they are not bound to link their deposit rate with external benchmark.
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