LadyDraza

2021-08-21 09:03:55 So - how come I have never heard about the Ohio "F" curve? I am a little confused by this one! Not about what I see, but about the "why" I see it. I expected Ohio to just be one of those sates that just went to the setpoint, but like NC, she had 2 of them. After looking at the electoral college votes, I am guessing that Ohio was originally planned to be a Biden win with 18 EC votes, but was swapped mid-race for NV and VA, which are 6 and 13, respectively. However, this swap seems to have happened BEFORE FL was called...but, possible not before the writing was on the wall and they were scrambling (and failing) to find one or two more pallets of ballots in the panhandle. Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:46:43 Annnddd - we finish up, much like the other states. We have our percentage control of the interval hanging tight - while we find places for the reductions to happen, without changing either the interval percentage distribution or the overall percentage ratio. These cleanup reductions are in between the reports that take about 10 minutes for each single vote to be counted. I guess they were tired from the big push earlier. Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:37:29 So - that number - 194846 - is kinda like the other reductions we have seen in other states. If you take that number and divide it by the total on the line above, it is usually apparent that is it a calculated reduction. If we do that here 194846/2071091 = 9.41% reduction. I would have expected it to be 9.5% of 10%...a nice round reduction like seen in other states. So, I looked as what we have going on. If we look at the reduction in just Trumps votes, what we have on this line is a reduction coupled with a flip from the 3rd party. If we remove the flip from the 3rd party, we get a reduction of 87049.15 votes from Trump's tally, which is a 4.20% reduction in Trump's overall vote at that time. Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:21:59 Now, the adjustment to that final setpoint was really a herculean effort by our vote counters. We were able to report 289157 votes in 17 seconds. This reduced the percentage from 83% to 77% Trump to Biden votes, because Biden received the lion's share of that valiant effort. Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:19:19 Here you can see the ratio control curve with a bit of a chaotic start and that "event" after Florida was called. But, after she got her final setpoint, the curve just eased its way into the final setpoint, like we have seen in so many other states. Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:14:33 If we go back and look at the national key calculated from the final values, you can see that MN is right there at the edge of the shuffle - and probably was affected by the moving of MI into the Biden side of the curve. Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:10:21 The "setpoint change" that appears to occur later on is most likely the result of a slight shifting in position as MI was being moved in the lineup. I refer to this as a setpoint change, because it bears a striking resemblance to what we would see in any industrial system that is being controlled and experiences a setpoint change. This is the image that I used on the graph above that - should - have nothing to do with elections. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Utkal-Mehta/publication/49848870/figure/fig3/AS:574107383066624@1513889274474/a-Setpoint-input-Process-output-by-b-proposed-method-c-Visioli-et-als-method_Q640.jpg Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:07:18 The difference in the shape that follows whatever was happening that caused the similarity between the events in PA and MN is the result of the difference in the initial perturbation that was assigned to each state. PA had one that was more chaotic that MN, Open / Comment

2021-08-21 07:04:21 The overall votes have a very high correlation with an R value of 0.9978, which is higher than Pennsylvania, but Pennsylvania was the states that had the same "event" happen, with regard to the loss of votes during counting. I pulled up the similar curve from Pennsylvania and, not only is the shape factor almost exactly the same, but it happened during almost the same counting interval number - around 50 - which, timewise, was shortly after the Florida surprise. Open / Comment

2021-08-19 21:25:18 Open / Comment