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The latest Messages 3
2022-12-22 16:32:08
U.S GDP (QOQ) (Q3) ACTUAL: 3.2% VS 2.9% PREVIOUS; EST 2.9%
1.5K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 13:32
2022-12-21 14:29:39
INDIA TO CONDUCT RANDOM COVID-19 TESTS FOR INTERNATIONAL PASSENGERS STARTING WEDNESDAY
3.2K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 11:29
2022-12-21 14:04:00
You need to understand a key Macro regime substantially benefitting the investors.
According to a Vanguard study, 88% of an investors' returns are tied to asset allocation i.e., there is positive correlation between assets in the same class, meaning they typically move in the same direction.
While investment decisions are often taken based on market sentiment and “recency bias”, data proves that a vast majority of the returns of a portfolio can be attributed to appropriate asset allocation.
Best,
Himalay Bhatia
3.4K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 11:04
2022-12-21 01:27:46
The 2- year US treasury yield is now below the Fed Funds Rate. (FFR)
Historically, the 2 year yield leads the FFR and when the 2 year yield is lower than the FFR, then it is witnessed that the Fed has paused its rate hikes.
In fact, a count of 10 times in history shows when the US 2 year yield has fallen below the FFR and the Fed had cut rates 9 out of 10 times (giving a probability of 90%).
Best,
Himalay Bhatia
2.2K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 22:27
2022-12-18 14:16:55
Mining Industry RenaissanceWe're at a key inflection point for the gold industry today. Due to the overwhelming pressure to adopt the green revolution, there has been a declining interest from miners in deploying capital to gold-focused projects.
Perversely, this is very bullish for the industry.
1.2K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 11:16
2022-12-17 18:37:01
The inflation concern of the US in one slide.
These are officially published numbers while the real numbers might still be higher. The target inflation goal set by the Federal Reserve is around 2% which is still substantially far off from the present inflation numbers.
On the contrary, India's target inflation is 4% (with a tolerance band of +/- 2%) and the CPI in November stood at a 11-month low of 5.88% indicating that the RBI has managed to achieve the target within its tolerance band. However, caution still hovers.
Best,
Himalay Bhatia
1.3K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 15:37
2022-12-16 18:04:18
The table also illustrates a long-term Gavekal belief that the bear markets exist for a reason; to shift market leadership from one group of stocks to the next. Hence, once the bear market has started, investors should be spending most of their time trying to identify the next winning trend instead of trying to time their re-entry into the previous—now dead—bull trend.
1.8K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 15:04
2022-12-16 18:04:07
Bulls, Burst Bubbles And Bear MarketsRoughly every decade or so, the financial markets fall in love with a new narrative. This narrative typically centres around one of three core ideas:
1.
Ricardian Growth - The opening of new markets to capitalism.
2.
Schumpeterian Growth - Technological breakthroughs.
3.
Malthusian Constraint - The fear that in the coming years there will not be enough for everyone.
The narrative inherently makes sense but over time the market pushes valuations to extremes that no longer make any sense at all.
How could almost all of the top 10 companies in the world by capitalisation be driven by exactly the same factor?
1.8K viewsHimalay Bhatia, edited 15:04
2022-12-16 11:51:58
DOW FUTURE NOW DOWN 320 POINTS FROM DAYS HIGH AFTER RUSSIA STRIKES WHOLE OF UKRAINE WITH MISSILES
1.5K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 08:51
2022-12-15 22:14:39
Either of the two projection paths of the estimated reversal are most likely take place:
1. Formation of an Inverted Head & Shoulder with the base area of neckline being @ $82.
2. Formation of Double Bottom structure with the next low forming above or at the level of $70.
Additionally for the reversal to transpire, the trader should ensure that:
1. The low of the recent swing ($70) should not be breached at any given point in time.
2. The RSI must give a breakout above its key area of interest of 47.
Once these conditions are fulfilled, traders can expect a significant price movement in US Oil on the upside.
Best,
Himalay Bhatia
2.9K viewsHimalay Bhatia, 19:14
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