The Paradigm Shift Channel ⏳

2022-05-12 16:34:46 Europe's natural gas/energy markets worsens. Russia imposes sanctions against units of Gazprom Germania. Russia has imposed its own sanctions on EuRoPol Gaz S.A., which owns the Polish portion of the Yamal-Europe natural gas pipeline.
The 2,000+ kilometer Yamal-Europe pipeline runs from Torzhok in Russia to Frankfurt, Germany, with the Polish section accounting for over 680 kilometers and housing five compressor stations. Last month, Germany’s energy network regulator took control of operations at Gazprom Germania.

Poland and Bulgaria, has been able to use the reverse flow on the Yamal pipeline to import gas from Germany. These sanctions coupled with yesterday's Ukraine's gas operator OGTSU shutting down a gas transit point of Russian gas to Europe has resulted in higher prices for Europeans today. German gas storage is around 40% full, that is still low for the time of year and inventories need to be built up over the summer in preparation for winter. Germany's 1year power ahead prices continue to rise. Open / Comment

2022-05-11 22:19:03 Gap between the record gasoline and diesel prices and the far-below-record crude oil prices shows consumer demand forces & currency devaluation at work.

High diesel prices are due to low refining capacity globally; rising demand for jet fuel, which competes with diesel for refining capacity.

Adjusted for CPI inflation, it's still not a record. In July 2008, gasoline at $4.11 would amount to $5.37 a gallon in today's dollars, with diesel prices still not at a record. In July 2008, diesel peaked at $4.76 a gallon, which would be $6.22 in today's dollars.

Adjusted for CPI inflation, that $150 a barrel back in July 2008 would be $196 in today's dollars. So, today's price of $102 is far below the spike of 2008 in "real" terms and doesn't yet amount to any kind of actual oil shock.

Rising diesel prices latest hurdle for Alberta, Canada farmers.
High diesel fuel prices hitting Pennsylvania, USA farmers.
Largest diesel distribution hub in the U.S. is sitting on diesel supplies at a 30-year low. Open / Comment

2022-05-11 21:50:40 USA - Fertilizer update:
Alabama farmers say they're adapting to dramatic increases in fertilizer prices by reconsidering what crops they plant, ordering smaller amounts of fertilizer and raising prices on fruits and vegetables.

Tennessee farmer: “I guess when I bought in February… of ’21 for that crop so this year, we tripled in nitrogen prices, and we pretty well doubled in potash and phosphate and it’s even higher since then probably another 15%, maybe 20% on certain elements,”

The US price of ammonia, the primary source of nitrogen fertilizer, has risen by a factor of six in the past two years.

Michigan state lawmakers to work on a resolution to request Congress to allow farmers to petition the U.S. International Trade Commission to temporarily waive tariffs on imports of fertilizer and fertilizer ingredients imported from Morocco. Open / Comment

2022-05-10 20:51:11 BREAKING- Ukraine turns off Europe-bound Russian gas.

Gas Transit Services of Ukraine (OGTSU) declared force majeure, saying that it was impossible to continue transit of gas through a connection point and compressor station located in the Lugansk area. As OGTSU personnel “cannot carry out operational and technological control” over the Sokhranovka connector point and Novopskov compressor station, the company cannot continue to fulfill its contract obligations.

Russian gas conglomerate Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or any obstacles to continued transit of gas through a junction in Lugansk region, after Ukraine’s operator OGTSU announced it would halt further deliveries starting May 11, due to the presence of “Russian occupiers.”

Gas from this connection will not be accepted into the transit system of Ukraine starting at 7 am on Wednesday, OGTSU said. Sokhrankovka accounts for almost a 3rd of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine to Europe – up to 32.6 mmcm/day. Open / Comment

2022-05-10 19:49:22 Ukraine is now pursuing agreements with Lithuania, Latvia, & Poland to help ship wheat using their ports. The country's grain is also loaded onto trucks etc. in the small Danube ports of Reni & Izmail in the southwest, for transport to the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta. Bulgaria said it was willing to help export Ukrainian grain from its Black Sea port of Varna. Trucks stuffed with Ukrainian grain have already been seen heading to the Moldovan port of Giurdulesti on the Danube. (Video)

Biden signed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 to make it easier for the U.S. to lend or lease military aid to Ukraine. Under the measure, Ukraine can request transfers of U.S. weapons and other assistance. The U.S. will get guarantees that the country will replace or reimburse the assets.

Ukraine continues to massively exports grain from the Odessa and Nikolaev regions which can be used to pay for lend-lease agreement with the US, and will create the pretext to accuse Russia of a new Holodomor. Open / Comment

2022-05-10 18:44:42 90% of surveyed central banks are exploring CBDCs — Bank for International Settlements.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has upgraded their CBDC, the eNaira, to keep the public away from using crypto alternatives.
Chile's central bank governor says, Chile's CBDC would need to accept offline payments.
Australia - Privacy isn't of concern, central banks are moving ahead with plans for CBDC's.
IMF recommends the Bahamas ‘accelerate its education campaigns’ on CBDC.
India's National Council of Applied Economic Research report says India should take caution in introducing CBDC
The Indian government, after imposing a 30% crypto tax and 1% tax-deductible at source (TDS), is now working to bring them under the goods and service tax (GST) ambit. Open / Comment

2022-05-10 02:59:29 Spring wheat hits 14-year high. A combination of delayed plantings in Northern U.S. Plains and Canada due to soggy weather, a dry spell in Western Europe, chaos in Ukraine, and severe weather in India, have disrupted global wheat markets, sending prices in Minneapolis to the highest levels since 2008. Earlier today, the most-active Chicago Board of Trade wheat (CBOT) was up 1.5% at $11.25 a bushel. Open / Comment

2022-05-08 22:47:39 National Currency payment & crypto headlines this week.

Brazil’s previous President Da Silva, proposes a Latin American currency ‘to be free of the US dollar’.

Argentina's central bank announced that financial institutions cannot enable their clients to carry out operations using digital assets.

The Chinese and Russian central banks will discuss the use and promotion of their respective national payment systems in both countries.

The Stablecoin Transparency of Reserves and Uniform Safe Transactions Act of 2022, makes the U.S. likely the only Western country, to fully regulate and accept stablecoins as an official part of the financial and banking system.

The U.S. Treasury sanctioned virtual currency mixer Blender.io (Blender), which is used by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Open / Comment

2022-05-08 22:19:08 Australian biosecurity officials are on high alert after reports of 1,247 cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, in Indonesia. Foot-and-mouth disease is considered one of the most serious livestock diseases, affecting cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, buffalo, camels, sheep, goats, deer and pigs. It can kill young animals, cause production losses and lead to significant trade restrictions.

(Avian Flu) Bird flu virus outbreaks continue across the U.S. totalling over 37 million chickens and turkeys killed/culled since March. Under guidance of the federal government, farms must destroy entire commercial flocks if just one bird tests positive for the virus. Wholesale egg prices touched a record $2.90 a dozen in April. Whole turkeys touched an all-time high $1.47 a pound. Open / Comment

2022-05-07 15:27:57 Manure has become a hot commodity. U.S. farmers hunting for animal manure as chemical fertilizers are in short supply or at sky-high prices. This is partly a result of the Biden administration sanctioning Russia and Belarus (2 of the world's top fertilizer exporters). The admin's ability to spin the transition of the chemical fertilizer to manure because it's the "green" thing to do is nothing short of disinformation.

Canada-based Nutrien Ltd., the world's largest fertilizer company, warned that fertilizer disruptions "could last well beyond 2022." Nutrien posted a more than 10-fold jump in first-quarter 2022 profit.

Major US fertilizer producer, CF Industries Holdings reported that 2022 quarterly earnings climbed 485%. Mosaic Co the world's largest producer of finished phosphate fertilizer, posted a more than 7-fold surge in quarterly profit. Open / Comment