The Paradigm Shift Channel ⏳

2022-05-20 16:46:22 Nine people were injured and 1 dead in an explosion and a fire on Thursday at a major 580,000-bpd refinery in South Korea. The fire and the possible shutdown of a large refinery come at a time when global refining margins are sky-high amid insufficient refinery capacity worldwide.

Refinery capacity globally is now lower than before the pandemic after some refineries closed permanently after COVID crippled fuel demand in early 2020. South Korea's 2022 Q1 petroleum exports soared 20% as reported 3 weeks ago. The Ulsan refinery has three crude distillation units. Market participants say a full shutdown of the refinery is likely. Open / Comment

2022-05-20 15:47:47 Sri Lanka fell into default for the first time in its history as the government struggles to halt an economic meltdown. Missed grace period payments on bonds worth $78 million.
Sri Lanka appointed nine more ministers today to an "all-party government" tasked with trying to steer the country out of its economic crisis, but the finance minister remains vacant.

Sri Lankan schools were closed and public officials were asked not to come to work in a desperate move to prepare for an acute fuel shortage that is expected to last days. Mohammad Shazly, a part-time chauffeur in a queue for the third day in the hope of procuring cooking gas for his family of five. Hundreds of others were in line, with empty cylinders by their side. "Without gas, without kerosene oil, we can't do anything," Shazly said. "Last option what? Without food we are going to die. That will happen hundred percent." Open / Comment

2022-05-19 00:43:58 Costa Ricans struggled to pay taxes by hand after a ransomware cyberattack took down the country’s online tax collection system. Several Costa Rican government agencies, including its Ministry of Finance, are severely hampered after an international cybercriminal gang called Conti locked them in April and demanded a ransom payment to make them operable again.

Costa Rican President, Rodrigo Chaves, stated that there are people in the country who are collaborating with the Conti cyber-criminal group. a total of 27 institutions affected to date. Nine of them have been extremely affected, including the Ministry of Finance. The attacks have forced the finance ministry to deactivate Costa Rica's tax collection systems, although a substitute platform has allowed some customs transactions to go forward. Open / Comment

2022-05-18 03:28:55 Thailand - Authorities confirmed the detection of African Swine Fever (ASF) in a surface swab sample collected at a slaughterhouse in Nakhon Pathom province, marking the country’s first official confirmation of the disease. The situation comes at a time when… Open / Comment

2022-05-18 02:47:31 Major weather changes faced by farmers, update:
British Columbia, Canada - Drizzly, frigid weather may result in crops reliant on pollination to delay/miss window.
With dryer temperatures, Iowa farmers make significant planting progress in last week.
Wet weather is making it hard for Minnesota farmers to start planting their crops.
Severe drought conditions continue to affect Louisiana & California farmers
NSW, Australia farmers face floods with a winter outlook that is bleak for livestock owners and crop growers who are struggling with waterlogged pastures, paddocks and plantations. Australians have been warned the price of fresh fruit and vegetables will increase. Open / Comment

2022-05-17 23:02:21 USA -Prices for diesel, have surged 76.5% in the last year to hit a record $5.56 per gallon. Inventories for the most commonly used diesel have dropped 43% since 2020 to the lowest since 2014. In Europe, diesel prices have soared 88%.

The chief driver isn’t high crude prices or even the rebound in demand: It’s simply too few refineries turning oil into usable fuels. Mountains of regulations make it extremely difficult to build and operate a new refineries in the US. Around 75% of all commercial vehicles registered in the U.S. are powered by diesel, making headache for U.S. trucking companies.

China's diesel exports are likely to drop in May from April's 447,000 tonnes, or about 110,000 bpd. While Russia may become bigger crude supplier to Asia's refineries. Likely that Europe's moves to end purchasing of Russian crude will result in European countries seeking to buy more diesel from refiners in Asia and the Middle East. Open / Comment

2022-05-16 13:26:27 Hong Kong intervened to prop up its currency for the first time since 2019, putting further upward pressure on interest rates. Hong Kong’s beleaguered economy faces the prospect of soaring borrowing costs, with the city’s de facto central bank expected to drain large amounts of liquidity as it defends a dollar peg.

The Russian ruble took over from Brazil's real as the world’s best performing currency of 2022 as the end looms for Brazil’s monetary tightening. The ruble has strengthened against the US dollar by more than 11% since the beginning of the year.

Market speculators have made a £5bn bet against the British pound after cost of living fears sent the currency sliding to a two-year low.

The IMF has raised the U.S. currency's weighting to 43.38% from 41.73% and the Chinese yuan to 12.28% from 10.92%, in its review of the currencies that make up the valuation of its Special Drawing Rights (SDR), an international reserve asset. Open / Comment

2022-05-16 12:59:10 Wheat climbed to a two-month high today on the CBOT exchange after India banned exports of the grain as a heat wave crimped its output. But India would still allow exports backed by already issued letters of credit and to countries that request supplies to meet food security needs. The most-active wheat contract rose as much as 6% to $12.47 a bushel. India's government had taken the decision "in order to manage the overall food security of the country. Sources said China is drawing food grains from India after crop loss led to food security concerns there. India mainly exports wheat to neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. India is a major wheat producer, but historically production was consumed domestically and not exported. (Chart). Open / Comment

2022-05-14 00:10:32 Coffee futures in New York jumped this week as new weather forecasts show Brazil (the world's largest producer) has increased frost risks in top growing areas. Brazil's soluble coffee exports fell 4.7% in the first four months of 2022. Russia, was the second main destination for Brazilian soluble coffee, behind only the US. Coffee farmers in Vietnam have resorted to growing avocados and durians due to the high cost of fertiliser. Ghana's Cocoa Board plans to distribute more than 600,000 coffee seeds to farmers; trees will reach maturity in 3-5 years. Open / Comment

2022-05-13 23:50:29 Clashes between protesters and government supporters across Sri Lanka turns violent as the country's economic crisis worsens. The president's elder brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa, quit as prime minister on Monday as violence spiralled and is in hiding in a military base. The central bank said inflation was at 30% in April, with food prices up nearly 50%. Sri Lankan authorities imposed a nationwide curfew and deployed the army on Monday. Sri Lankans are facing food and fuel shortages, power cuts, and inadequate supply of medicines. Sri Lanka was the first country in South Asia to embrace neoliberalism. Yet the opening of its economy to the IMF came with the vilification of minorities and a violent onslaught on trade unions. British MP calls on UK government to apply sanctions on 'senior figures' in Sri Lanka. Open / Comment