The Paradigm Shift Channel ⏳

2022-06-03 02:50:51 Fuel rationing may be coming to Europe – IEA. The fallout from sanctions/supply chains/war is likely to make the current energy crisis worse than the crises of the 1970s. “Back then it was all about oil. Now we have an oil, gas and electricity crisis.

UN Secretary-General called on the world’s advanced economies to eliminate coal infrastructure, citing environmental issues. He also asked all financial institutions to move away from fossil fuel financing.

Finland has continued importing Russian LNG after being cut off by Moscow from its natural gas supply over its refusal to pay in rubles. Finnish Gasum has two different contracts to receive Russian gas. One of them entails pipeline supplies through the Imatra entry point and the other is for liquefied natural gas (LNG) transported by tankers.

Austria’s oil and gas conglomerate OMV has said its recent payment for Russian gas under the new ruble settlement mechanism was successful. Open / Comment

2022-06-03 02:22:22 The London Metal Exchange is considering whether it should sometimes block traders from withdrawing inventory from its warehouses, in order to guard against running out of metal entirely. Such a move would mark a significant shift in philosophy for the 144… Open / Comment

2022-06-03 02:12:09 US rivals shunning dollar lifts yuan-ruble trading by 1,067% to almost $4 billion since the end of February. “The main players in the yuan-ruble market are corporations and banks, but there is also a growing interest from retail investors,”.

Volume in the dollar-ruble pair sank to the lowest level in a decade, based on its 20-day moving average. The ruble rallied 118% against the USD between early March and late May.

Russia's central bank could impose negative interest rates on certain dollar and euro deposits to encourage the use of other currencies, especially China's yuan. China's trade with Russia rose 12% in March year-on-year. Open / Comment

2022-06-01 21:55:18 Russian grain exports can’t get to Europe because the sanctions imposed by the EU on Moscow effectively block supplies. The EU banned Russian vessels from entering its ports as part of the fifth package of sanctions adopted in April.

“Although Western countries keep saying that grain has not been sanctioned, they for some reason fail to mention that the ships that transport Russian grain are in fact under sanctions. European ports do not allow them in, there’s no insurance available and in general Western sanctions have disrupted the logistical and financial infrastructure that Russia uses to export its own grain.

UN says reintegration of Russian food/fertilizer exports into global markets can prevent food crisis. Open / Comment

2022-06-01 21:38:56 Russia cuts off gas to Denmark after Denmark’s largest power company and Shell Energy in Germany refused to pay for supplies in rubles. “As of the end of the business day on May 31, Gazprom Export had not received payment for gas supplies in April from Orsted Salg & Service,”.

In 2021, Gazprom Export supplied the Danish company with 1.97 bcm of gas, which amounted to about two thirds of total gas consumption in Denmark. Danish Energy Agency says, Denmark losing its supply would not have immediate consequences.

Countries cut off from Russian gas for failure to pay in rubles so far:
Bulgaria
Poland
Finland
The Netherlands
Denmark Open / Comment

2022-06-01 03:43:30 UK consumers face additional hikes in shop prices after retail inflation is up again. Shop price annual inflation accelerated to 2.8% in May, up from 2.7% the month before — the highest rate since July 2011. Food inflation increased to 4.3% from 3.5% the month prior, the highest since April 2012.

Rising inflation also pushed people to borrow more on credit, with credit card borrowing rising at the fastest rate since 2005.

Rising costs have created a “ticking timebomb” for UK small business owners, with almost half a million firms at risk of going bust within weeks without a fresh wave of government support. Open / Comment

2022-06-01 03:24:49 German inflation nears 50-year high. Annual inflation in Europe’s top economy has reached 7.9%, the highest level since the 1973 oil crisis. Energy prices reportedly rose 38.3% in May year-on-year, while food prices posted an 11.1% leap.

Euro zone inflation came in at 8.1% for the month, up from April’s record high of 7.4%. French inflation also surpassed expectations in May to a notch record 5.8%, up from 5.4% in April, while harmonized Spanish consumer prices jumped by an annual 8.5% in May. Open / Comment

2022-06-01 03:09:20 Russia cuts off gas to Netherlands after Dutch state energy company GasTerra failed to make a required payment in rubles.

GasTerra earlier said it had taken measures to make up for the gas shortfall.
“The cessation of supply by Gazprom means that until October 1, 2022, the date on which the contract ends, approximately 2 bcm of contracted gas will not be supplied.

The EU will not discuss a ban on Russian natural gas imports as part of the next round of Ukraine-related sanctions against Moscow, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer disclosed. “The gas embargo will not be a topic, [German Chancellor] Olaf Scholz has made this clear as well,”. Estonia and Belgium both share Austria’s view on a potential embargo of Russian gas deliveries to the bloc.

Countries cut off from Russian gas for failure to pay in rubles so far:
Bulgaria
Poland
Finland
The Netherlands
Will Denmark be next? Open / Comment

2022-05-30 17:39:32 Oil rallied today to its highest levels since March, hitting $120 USD/per barrel, on news of the EU in a sanctions crunch and China eased covid restrictions. Diplomats failed to break through Hungary's opposition to a Russian oil embargo. The European Union looks set to agree on an oil embargo against Russia but would exempt pipeline exports. Despite a strong USD which inversely moves with the oil price, crude oil has been defying this historic correlation.

Russia’s Rosneft proposes record dividend on soaring oil prices. Will benefit Russian state the most. Foreign investors in the Russian oil and gas giants may find it difficult to actually receive the dividends because of financial sanctions.

Iran said its export revenues from oil and gas have jumped 60% year-on-year. Despite the tough sanctions on the country, Iran has generated $2.45 billion from exports in the first two months of the year. Open / Comment

2022-05-30 16:55:15 Wheat - South America has hurdles to boost wheat production.

Brazil is due to increase its wheat crop production. Brazil is the world's 8th largest importer of wheat, most of which (87%) comes from Argentina.
Argentina's water reserves are very low, so the producers don't want to risk planting wheat amid soaring fertilizer prices. Paraguay and Uruguay enjoy good wheat yields -- but they have a much smaller global impact.

After harvesting back-to-back bumper crops, Australia is poised to become the world’s third-largest wheat exporter this year.

Iraqi farmers say they are paying the price for a government decision to irrigate only 50% of agricultural lands, due to low water levels, strain on wheat harvest.

India- Wheat export ban to ensure adequate supply at home.

US Michigan Farm Bureau- The same uncertainty that has produced higher wheat prices has also hit energy costs, leading to higher fertilizer costs and higher gasoline prices. Open / Comment