2022-02-17 03:59:46
Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 17 February 2022
KOBAY(RM4.73) – Pending a rectangle breakout in anticipation of a strong 2Q results
Riding on buoyant tech outlook. According to SEMI’s forecast, 2022 total equipment spending is slated to register another 6.2% growth to USD101.3bn after registering a whopping 18% surge in 2021 to USD95.3bn, making a third consecutive year of growth premised on the ongoing chips shortage and national strategic interests. In the event of the multi-year semiconductor upcycle, KOBAY is well-positioned to achieve new heights with its strong presence in this industry (70% of FY20 group revenue) supported by its in-depth experience and excellent product quality. Besides, the promising outlook of its high-level assembly business driven by the robust demand from its recently-secured advance data server machine project (KOBAY’s target capacity of 60k units per month versus customer’s demand of 100k per unit per month) will be a major catalyst driving KOBAY’s FY22 earnings.
Multiple new income streams to drive growth. Apart from its robust existing businesses, KOBAY’s FY22 prospect will also be driven by two new additional growth engines, namely the pharmaceutical and health and green energy products. To recap, KOBAY ventured into the solar frames manufacturing business in 2021 with a target capacity of 2k tonnes per month to tap into the group capabilities in manufacturing precision metal. We are upbeat about the group’s well-timed entry solar frame projects to drive KOBAY’s earnings, judging from the accelerating solar power demand globally that will keep solar panel demand buoyant. Note that, the group has secured a customer with few more clients in the pipeline to fill its solar frame capacity; this segment is expected to contribute in 2HFY22.
On the other hand, the newly acquired pharmaceutical and health business will create recurring income to enhance KOBAY’s earnings visibility and sustainability. All in, we strongly believe that KOBAY is poised for a multi-year growth in earnings supported by the healthy pipeline of job orders.
Building a base. Following the global tech’s rout, KOBAY has plunged 28% YTD to close at RM4.73 yesterday. Technically, KOBAY is building a solid base at RM4.48-4.60 levels. A decisive breakout above RM4.78 will spur the prices toward RM4.96- 5.13- 5.35 territories. Cut lost at RM 4.32.
Collection range: RM4.48-4.60-4.73
Upside targets: RM4.96-5.13-5.35
Cut loss: RM4.32
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KOBAY(RM4.73) – 期待强劲的第二季度业绩; 等待矩形形态突破
受惠于科技行业乐观的前景。根据 SEMI 的预测，在 2021 年大幅增长 18% 至 953 亿美元之后，2022 年设备总支出将再增长 6.2% 至 1013 亿美元，主要因为芯片短缺问题仍然持续和发展半导体已经成为国家战略所带动。得益于公司深厚的经验和产品卓越的质量， KOBAY主要产品牵涉于半导体行业（占 FY20收入的 70%），因此在半导体行业旺盛周期的情况下，KOBAY 将再创新高。此外，由于其刚获得订单的组装数据服务器项目收到强劲需求（KOBAY 的目标产能为每月 6 万台，而客户的需求为每月 10 万台），这将成为推动 KOBAY 2022 财年盈利的主要催化剂之一。
多种新的收入来源推动公司的成长。除了现有强劲的业务之外，KOBAY 的 FY22 前景还将受到两个新的因素推动成长，即医药健康以及绿色能源产品。KOBAY 于 2021 年利用集团制造精密金属的能力涉足太阳能框架制造业务，目标产能为每月 2000 吨。在全球太阳能需求的加速增长使太阳能电池板的需求保持强劲的情况下，我们认为该集团对的时间进入太阳能框架项目，并预期该业务将推动 KOBAY 的收益。目前KOBAY太阳能框架产能业务已经获得了一个主要客户，并正在与一些未来潜在客户洽谈， 这业务将在 2HFY22 做出贡献。
另一方面，新收购的医药和健康业务将创造经常性收入，以提高 KOBAY 的盈利可见性和可持续性。总而言之，我们坚信，在强劲的工作订单的支持下，KOBAY 有望实现多年的盈利增长。
获得支撑。在全球各大科技股大跌之后，KOBAY 年初至今已经下跌 28%，昨日收于RM 4.73 。技术面上，KOBAY 在 RM4.48-4.60 的水平上建立了强支撑。股价若成功突破 RM4.78 将推动价格上涨至 RM4.96- 5.13- 5.35 区域。投资者可把止损设置在RM 4.32。
买入范围：RM4.48-4.60-4.73
上行目标：RM4.96-5.13-5.35
止损：RM4.32
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