2022-04-13 03:34:37
Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 13 April 2022
BIMB: Pending a new wave
Defensive play. After hitting target price 2 (TP2 @ RM3.26) of our BIMB Technical tracker report on Dec-21 (report), the stock had retreated 10% from the 52-week high of RM3.26 to RM2.91 yesterday, making it a laggard against peers, which we deemed as a good opportunity to accumulate. Given rising external headwinds such as: (i) prolonged Russia-Ukraine war that worsened the global supply chain crisis; and (ii) potentially slower global GDP growth and corporate earnings expectations, continued to weigh market sentiment, we reckon KLCI is going to stay choppy in the short-term. This would incentivise investors to de-risk through investing into counters that have low <1.0 beta yet providing decent upside and dividend yield. In this respect, we believe BIMB, which has a better asset quality among small-sized banks while providing decent upside and dividend yield, is deemed a good proxy.
Like other banks, BIMB will benefit from the OPR hike cycle with economic recovery. To recap, HLIB is expecting a +25bps rate hike in OPR to 2% in 2H22 and real GDP to advance +5.5% in 2022 on the back of Malaysia's transition to endemicity. Tracking the economic recovery trend, we expect 2022 system loan to grow by +4.5-5.0% YoY as leading indicators (loan application) gaining momentum. Despite being well-positioned in multiple tailwinds, BIMB stock performance had been lacklustre (YTD: -2.6% vs KLFIN YTD: +7.5%), making it one of the worst-performing banks stock.
Grossly priced in. To recap, BIMB's 4QFY21 earnings was hit by higher loan loss provision for an O&G company, triggering a sell-down as the investment fraternity was caught off guard with the negative development. We believe the market has baked this name into forecasts and valuations, which in turn, limit shocks and surprises in upcoming financial performance. In any case, we are glad the blow up happened now rather than later, since BIMB is poised to be punished by the Prosperity tax this year.
Building a base. By looking at BIMB’s past one year chart pattern, whenever BIMB staged a consolidation breakout (after 56-60 days consolidating), the stock may register 15-19% return. Technically, BIMB is building a base near the RM2.90 or 200D MA area. A decisive breakout above RM2.98 (1 Apr high) will spur the price toward RM3.15-3.26-3.45. Cut loss at RM2.83.
Collection range: RM2.86-2.90-2.93
Upside targets: RM3.15-3.26-3.45
Cut: RM2.83
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BIMB：等待新一波上涨
防御性公司。在达到我们在 12 月 21 日的 BIMB Technical Tracker报告的目标价（TP2 @ RM3.26）后，该股已从 52 周高点 RM 3.26 回落 10% 至昨天的 RM2.91 . 外部不利因素不断增加，例如：(i) 俄罗斯与乌克兰的长期战争加剧了全球供应链危机； (ii) 全球 GDP 增长和企业盈利预期可能放缓，继续打压市场情绪，我们认为隆指将在短期内保持震荡。这将吸引投资者通过投资低于 1.0 BETA值并可提供可观的上行空间和股息收益率高的股票来降低投资风险。
与其他银行一样，BIMB 将受益于随着经济复苏的 OPR 加息周期。HLIB 预计在 2H22 年 OPR将增加 25 个基点至 2%，并且在马来西亚进入过渡流行病阶段的情况下，2022 年实际 GDP 将增长 5.5%。随着经济复苏的趋势，我们预计 2022 年系统贷款将同比增长 +4.5-5.0%。尽管处于有利位置，BIMB 的股票表现一直低迷（年初至今：-2.6%，而 KLFIN 年初至今：+7.5%），使其成为表现最差的银行股之一。
虽然股价表现落后，我们认为这是一个买入的好机会。在这方面， BIMB 作为在小型银行中具有更好的资产质量，同时提供可观的上行空间和股息收益率，被认为是一个很好的投资选择。
股价已消化近期不利因素。BIMB 的 2021 财年第四季度收益因一家油气公司而提高贷款损失拨备所打击，引发了抛售。我们相信市场已经将消化此利空，股价此前的下跌也限制了即将到来的财务业绩的任何冲击和意外。无论如何，我们很高兴这次的利空发生在现在而不是将来，主要因为 BIMB 将在今年受到繁荣税的影响。
建立支撑。通过查看 BIMB 过去一年的图表模式，每当 BIMB 进行盘整突破（盘整 56-60 天后），股价可能会在短期内取得 15-19% 的上升。从技术而言，BIMB 正在 RM2.90 或 200DMA 区域附近建立一个支撑。股价若突破 RM2.98 （4 月 1 日高点）将推动价格升至 RM3.15-3.26-3.45 令吉。投资者可把止损设置在 RM2.83。
买入范围：RM2.86-2.90-2.93
上行目标：RM3.15-3.26-3.45
止损：RM2.83
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