2022-04-11 04:05:17
Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 11 April 2022
PHARMA: A strong defensive proxy amid prevailing headwinds
SINOVAC vaccine. Despite Malaysia's high vaccination rates (adults boosted: 67.6%, adults fully vaccinated: 97.6%), we remain upbeat of PHARMA's vaccine business as the group is now focusing on exporting SINOVAC to international markets such as Indonesia, Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar and several African nations (Figure# 1) that have relatively low vaccination rates in proportion to their total populations. In FY22, PHARMA is targeting to supply 10m doses of SINOVAC vaccines to private and export markets, with delivery expected to kick start by 2H22.
The 5-year strategy. Going forward, PHARMA's growth will be supported by its 5-year strategy introduced in 2021. To recap, the strategy will focus on four areas: (i) strengthening its logistics and distribution (L&D) business in Malaysia and Indonesia; (ii) expanding its products’ range; (iii) aim to become a serious contender in the biopharma industry, particularly in the development of insulin and vaccines and (iv) expanding new international markets. Currently, about 20% of PHARMA's total revenue comes from international markets, and PHARMA is planning to capture a higher 50% target via aggressive penetration into the Philippines and Thailand markets (combined population c.179m versus Malaysia population c.32.7m).
Unlike the Indonesia operation where PHARMA already established a presence via MPI and PT Errita Pharma (which have manufacturing plants in Bandung), the group will tap into the Philippines and Thailand markets by establishing collaborations with the local counterparts. To recap, the group had entered into two separate MOU with two Thailand-based parties on 22 Feb (report), and it is also hopeful that a deal will be concluded for the Philippine market by 1H22. While the MOU is expected to only materialize in FY24, the promising market opportunity in ASEAN will continue to propel PHARMA's growth in the longer-term.
Building a sound base. After plunging 47.5% from 52-week high of RM1.45 to RM0.76 yesterday, PHARMA is trading at an undemanding 11.9x FY23 P/E (48% and 43% discount against 5-year average of 23.2x and peers average of 20.9x) coupled with superior 5.5% dividend yield. Technically, PHARMA is building a sound base near RM0.70-74 territory, which we believe would offer buying opportunity. A strong breakout above RM0.76 (200D MA) will spur the prices toward RM0.82-0.86-0.90 territory. Cut lost at RM0.70.
Collection range: RM0.70-0.74-0.76
Upside targets: RM0.82-0.86-0.90
Cut: RM0.68
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PHARMA：在逆风具有抗跌性质的股票SINOVAC 疫苗。尽管马来西亚的疫苗接种率已高（成年人加强剂：67.6%，成年人完全接种疫苗：97.6%），我们仍然看好 PHARMA 的疫苗业务，因为该集团现在专注于向印度尼西亚、菲律宾、柬埔寨、泰国、缅甸等国际市场和几个非洲国家出口 SINOVAC疫苗，其疫苗接种率与其总人口的比例相对马来西亚低。在22 财年，PHARMA 目标向私人和出口市场供应 1000 万剂 SINOVAC 疫苗，并预计将于 2H22 开始交付。
5年策略。展望未来，PHARMA 的增长将得到其 2021 年推出的 5 年策略所支持。该策略将专注于四个领域：(i) 加强其在马来西亚和印度尼西亚的物流和分销 (L&D) 业务； (ii) 扩大其产品范围； (iii) 成为生物制药行业的有力竞争者，特别是在胰岛素和疫苗的开发方面，以及 (iv) 拓展新的国际市场。目前，PHARMA 约 20% 的总收入来自国际市场，PHARMA 计划通过积极渗透菲律宾和泰国市场（人口合计约 1.79 亿，马来西亚人口约 3270 万）来实现更高的 50% 目标。
与 PHARMA 在印度尼西亚业务不同（已经设立 MPI 和 PT Errita Pharma并在万隆设有制造工厂），该集团将通过与当地同行建立合作关系来进军菲律宾和泰国市场。该集团已于 2 月 22 日与两个泰国的公司签订了两份单独的谅解备忘录，并且还希望在 2022 年上半年获得进入菲律宾市场的合作伙伴。虽然谅解备忘录预计只会在 24 财年开始盈利，但东盟其庞大的市场机会将继续推动 PHARMA 的长期增长。
正在 RM0.70-74 附近筑底。在从 1.45 令吉的 52 周高位暴跌 47.5% 至 0.76 令吉后，PHARMA 的交易估值为 11.9 倍 FY23 P/E（相对于 5 年平均 23.2 倍和同行平均20.9 倍水平分别折让 48% 和 43%）以及 享有5.5% 的高股息收益率。从技术上讲，PHARMA 正在 RM0.70-74 附近建立稳固的基础，我们相信这将提供买入机会。强劲突破 0.76 令吉（200 日均线）将推动价格升至 0.82-0.86-0.90 令吉区域。投资者可以把止损设置在 RM0.70。
买入范围：RM0.70-0.74-0.76
上行目标：RM0.82-0.86-0.90
止损点：RM0.68
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