2022-03-28 03:45:48
Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 28 Mar 2022
SIMEPROP (RM0.59-BUY-TP RM0.78) – Selling overdone for undervalued giant Largest landbank owner with strategic locations. SIMEPROP is currently the largest listed property counter in Malaysia in terms of land bank size with an astonishing 20k acres of land bank. Within the 20k acres of land bank, 13.3k acres are located near existing 24 active townships as well as integrated and niche developments (~RM89bn worth of GDV), with the bulk of it located in Klang Valley, Negeri Sembilan and Johor while being strategically connected to major highways. Besides, the group has additional access to 20k acres under the Option Agreements with its sister companies, which are valid for 5 years (effective Nov 2017).
Overall, we believe SIMEPROP is able to navigate the current challenging property landscape well as (i) the bulk of the land bank was acquired previously at low historical cost, which should provide product and pricing flexibilities; and (ii) it will be able to capitalise on its massive landbank and identify strategic locations to replenish and activate in suitable timing following the sector dynamics, coupled with (iii) an orderly monetization programmes by SIMEPROP.
Unjustifiably valued. SIMEPROP’s share price tumbled 25.8% from a 52-week high of RM0.795 to close at RM0.59 last Friday, a 70% discount to our RNAV/share of RM1.95 (vs average discount of 63% to RNAV for other HLIB-covered property stocks). We believe such a steep discount is unjustified given that the group is the largest property developer in Malaysia.
Optimistic outlook. Despite potential rate hike in 2H22, an absence of HOC and persistent overhangs, we reckon that SIMEPROP will be able to achieve the conservative FY22 sales target of RM2.6bn (-13% YoY), underpinned by an unbilled sales of RM2.4bn, proposed RM2.8bn GDV launches for FY22 with strategic product mix (c.81% residential, c.16% industrial) within its well-suited landbank, as well as the re-opening of Malaysia’s borders on 1 April (set to benefit from strong foreign demand which was previously deterred by the lockdowns)
Potential downtrend reversal amid a hammer formation. After hitting a 52-week high at RM0.795 (18 Oct), SIMEPROP had corrected 32% to a low of RM0.54 (21 Mar) before ending at RM0.59 last Friday. The Hammer pattern signals a potential capitulation by sellers to form a bottom, accompanied by bottoming up technical indicators. A strong breakout above RM0.60 will spur prices to re-challenge RM0.63 (downtrend line) and 0.67 (50R% FR) before advancing to LT objective at 0.735 (76.4% FR).
Collection range: RM0.54-0.57-0.59
Upside targets: RM0.63-0.675-0.735
Cut loss: RM0.525
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SIMEPROP (RM0.59-BUY-TP RM0.78) – 被市场低估的巨头
最大土地储备拥有者。 SIMEPROP 目前是马来西亚拥有最大土地储备规模的上市公司中，拥有惊人 20,000 英亩的土地储备。在 20,000 英亩的土地储备中，13,300 英亩位于现有的 24 个活跃乡镇以及综合和利基开发项目（价值约 890 亿令吉的 GDV），其中大部分位于巴生谷、森美兰州和柔佛州，同时具有发展意义与主要高速公路相连。此外，根据与“姊妹公司”签订的期权协议，该集团可额外获得 20,000 英亩土地，有效期为 5 年（2017 年 11 月生效）。
总体而言，我们认为 SIMEPROP 能够度过当前充满挑战的房地产市场，因为 (i) 大部分土地储备以较低的成本收购，这将提供产品和定价的灵活性； (ii) 它将能够利用其庞大的土地储备并确定发展位置，以根据行业动态在适当的时间补充和激活，再加上 (iii) SIMEPROP 的有序货币化计划。
估值严重低估。 SIMEPROP 的股价从 52 周高点 RM0.795下跌 25.8%，并在上周五收于RM 0.59 ，对比RNAV/股 RM1.95 折让 了70%（对比HLIB 概括的房地产公司的 RNAV 平均折让 63%）。鉴于该集团是马来西亚最大的房地产开发商，我们认为目前的股价与估值是不合理的。
乐观的前景。尽管 2H22 可能加息，，但我们认为 SIMEPROP 将能够实现 26 亿令吉（按年 -13%）的FY22 销售目标，这得益于 24 亿令吉的未结账销售额，22 财年将推出 28 亿令吉的 GDV，（约 81% 住宅，约 16% 工业），以及 4 月 1 日重新开放马来西亚边境（将受益于外国投资而提高需求，此前因封锁而受影响）
锤形形态。在触及 52 周高点 RM0.795 （10 月 18 日）后，SIMEPROP 已回调 32% 至 RM0.54 （3 月 21 日）的低点，并在上周五收于 RM0.59 。锤子形态可能表示短期内已形成底部，并伴随着反转的技术指标，股价或将强劲突破 RM0.60 并再次挑战 RM0.63 （下降趋势线）和 RM0.67（50R% FR），并达到RM 0.735（76.4% FR）的长期目标。
买入范围：RM0.54-0.57-0.59
上行目标：RM0.63-0.675-0.735
止损：RM0.525
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