2022-06-16 18:43:01
NBA Finals, preview for the sixth game
Score in the series: 3-2 Warriors
Injuries: There are always concerns about Porter and Rob Williams, but now it's hard to imagine that they will miss the match.
Quotes: Boston is the 3.5-point favorite, with a total of 209.5.
What you need to know
The main variable of this series is on half of the Warriors. Golden State has always scored from 100 to 108 points in the previous 5 matches. But Boston attack and Warriors defense are a completely different matter. In the winning matches, Celts scored more than 115 points (120 in the first game, 116 in the third), in the lost ones, the Greens did not break through 98 (88, 97 and 94 in the second, fourth and fifth games, respectively).
Who usually wins
In 4 out of 5 matches, the winner was the one who lost the ball less often (in the only exception, the difference in the percentage of losses was very modest and rather formal)
In 4 out of 5 matches, the winner was the one who threw more effectively from the game (again, with the only exception, the difference in eFG% was very modest and rather formal)
The outcomes were weakly dependent on rebounds in attack and the frequency of penalties.
What to expect from a game drawing
Boston has been concentrating on finding unequal exchanges throughout the series and trying to attack due to this. But in recent matches, Warriors' defense is coping. Peyton and Wiggins are very good individually, Thompson has added 1 in 1 in defense, and since Clay was thrown at Brown, Draymond can be a relatively free safety who helps partners and gets in the way in the "paint" (Peyton and Wiggins also help well).
This, in fact, may be the main turning point of the series - when Green had to defend against Brown, Draymond once again did not go to insure (there was often no one else to insure besides him), and if he did, he left Jaylen open, and Brown received the ball in a convenient position for attack. Now it turned out that Thompson can handle Jaylen, and then Green defends himself against someone less dangerous, and can help much more accentuated and at the same time with impunity. Brown is always forced to attack from static. Hence the loss of Boston and their inability to complete.
Boston here needs to hope for a cool implementation because of the arc from unstable role players. And also try to drive the pace and plow on the boards, this gives opportunities for light attacks, which Boston with their problematic attack can not be scattered in any way.
Golden State continues to wind up the number of pick-n-rolls. Boston does not want to exchange or double (and is unlikely to start, it's too late for such experiments). And so far, Warriors have been able to punish Boston for their safety play. Somewhere it's Curry as a scorer, somewhere it's Curry more like a playmaker, somewhere it's Pool as a backup version of Curry, somewhere it's Clay, who opens on the barrier without the ball, and sees about the same defense as Steph, playing pick-and-roll. Moreover, it works even when they get so-so - Warriors" in the 4th game threw 35% from behind the arc, and in the 5th 22% at all.
Probably Boston should be more aggressive at the start of the 6th game, maybe try to force losses and run away, dispersing the attack at the same time. But this is not exactly a feature of Celtics, they rarely force the opponent to lose the ball. And in case of failure, such an aggressive defense will give open throws and fouls. It would be possible to try to increase activity by switching to small fives, but this leaves Boston with zero protection under the ring, and in short periods the warriors have already shown how they will be punished for this.
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