MVP Sports Consulting

2022-06-08 17:21:17 NBA Finals - what happens in the series, and what will happen next

In the second match, the Warriors won convincingly, turning the entire fourth quarter into "garbage" time. The score in the series is even, now it's 1-1, and the final moves to Boston, where the next two matches will be held.

What's going on in the Warriors' half

Golden State in the first match godlessly got hit from behind the arc. Then the Celtics' roleplayers got just great - 15 out of 23 from the Horford-Smart-White trio. In the second match, Warriors insured less clumsily, moved in defense noticeably sharper, probably the return of Peyton helped all this.

As a result, losses were forced (Celtics had 18 of them, and 15 of them were interceptions by Warriors), shots from under the ring were contested (Celtics had 35% on two-pointers), and there were no completely open three-pointers from receiving (the same Horford-Smart-White trio threw out only 7 three-pointers). Instead, the lion's share of long-range throws were taken by stars, who are more likely to throw from the lead and with resistance.

There are disadvantages to such a defense of Warriors. Firstly, it's not too easy to rush around in defense, and you need to add semi-random people to the squad just to give the base a break. But it doesn't look critical yet. The second disadvantage is that such protection is tied to the presence of Peyton, and Gary does not have a positive effect on the attack. By itself, he will not bury the attack, but their pair with Looney or Green is quite. The concept of Peyton resembles the concept of Iguodala - when you release a player who is neither "big" nor throwing. In the second match, Peyton's defense turned out to be wildly good, he has a fierce plus. But no one will be surprised if Boston adjusts, these five Warriors are vulnerable.

In general, I would not be surprised if in the third match Warriors returned to the defense used in the first game. Now that the score in the series is equal, and it is not necessary to pick up the next match, you can check the Boston snipers again. And if they fail now, they will be able to pick up the match in a relatively economical mode. That is, if Kerr believed before the first game that the Boston roleplayers would smear, then most likely he believes now. It was just necessary to pick up the second match, such risks were unacceptable there, and now you can return to the previous theory (especially considering that Udoka openly encourages his guys to get into the "paint").

In general, we are waiting for three Celtics.

What's going on in the Celtics' half

Boston hasn't really figured out how it wants to defend itself against pick-and-rolls. They sort through the options, and it all breaks down. It is often said that when defending against the stars, you need to alternate defense, they say, there are still no good options there, so let's try to be unpredictable at least. For example, the same Warriors threw 4 different schemes under Doncic in the first 4 defensive possessions. It's not like that here. Firstly, drop vs. Curry is not unpredictable. Secondly, with such a search of strategies, the change of the scheme should be frequent. Boston uses defensive models in packs, we play one thing for 2 quarters, another quarter for another. They are exactly what they are looking for options, and they cannot find a working one.

Not getting on the ball is not an option, Pool and Curry will be punished from a distance. Playing doubles is painful, even not the most throwing combinations of "Warriors" consistently play too much. Open / Comment

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2022-06-05 16:49:31 Who will help Curry

Steph was fine, but Warriors had very little other creativity in attack. Poole and Wiggins will be required to create an attack that can hold out in Curry's moments of rest. And I would try to combine Pool minutes with Wiggins minutes, because at the moment these are the two most successful independent creatives in Steph's entourage. No Curry- let these two out. Again, Brown often gets minutes with spare ones, and if we throw Wiggins at him, then Andrew's minutes will be shifted just for these segments.

Warriors have something to add to, and Boston will start throwing worse sooner or later anyway.

But Celtics themselves can answer. Their defense changed several times during the match, by the end of the meeting they had found a more working model. Now they can start with it, without missing 6 threes in a quarter from Steph, and without dying on high pick-and-rolls. Tatum is unlikely to throw 2 matches in a row as badly.

But Celtics also have openly controversial spots. Rob Williams spent the whole match trying to figure out how to defend himself, but in the end Boston defended without him. Probably, when the Warriors have 2 big ones playing, Rob is playable (and not always), the rest of the time, there will be problems. Grant Williams ran very little. If Udoka understands that these people are not very playable, then the rotation will shrink to some tiny sizes, and everyone who can stay on the floor will play for 45 minutes (although Pritchard made his way into the squad, maybe this will help).

According to the logic of the series, the second match is supposed to be picked up by the Warriors. If we look at how the first match went, the fact that the Warriors are playing at home, and how historically such things end, it turns out that Golden State is a notable favorite of the second game. They have a lot of things that can be fixed, and they clearly need this meeting more.

And it should be noted that the teams played quite slowly. If not for the fierce implementation (the Warriors also hit very well, albeit 10 percentage points worse than Boston), the score would have been noticeably more modest. Open / Comment

2022-06-05 16:49:31 We already have bets, let's see what you need to know about the NBA Finals after the first game

Boston took the first match, 5 minutes before the end the score was equal, 2 minutes before the end the Celtics broke away so that the match actually ended. Now the Celts are leading 1-0 and have seized the advantage of their own ground (it is enough for them not to lose at home to win the series).

What happened, and what adjustments can be made? Let's take a look at how you can fix the losers.

Boston was a very cool hit

After three quarters, the Warriors led by 12 points, had an advantage in the possession game (more rebounds in attack, fewer losses), and the implementation from behind the arc and from the game was comparable. But in the 4th Boston got 9 three-pointers out of 12, in the match their accuracy from a distance exceeded 50%. On the one hand, this is not something that can be repeated by order, it is too much. And not the most reliable shooters remained open on the arc (but this time Smart, Horford and White gave 15 out of 23 for three).

Golden State can continue to insure with the same emphasis, and spit on the arc, in the hope that Boston will not give out 2 such matches in a row. But if it does, then you are flying 0-2, and the next 2 games are away. You can try to move more and plow better one-on-one, so that the safety net is not so obvious, but this is a completely different basketball, a different approach. Will Golden State stick to the original plan, or will he try to adjust something? The quality and quantity of long-range shots of Celtics will depend very much on this.

Brown was unstoppable

Boston's breakthrough into the 4th, it's not only three, it's also Jaylen Brown, with whom no one really coped. Apparently, the best option in defense against Jaylen is Andrew Wiggins, he needs to be removed from Tatum and thrown under Brown. And you can send Green, Thompson, and Porter to Tatum - Jason is not so explosive, and he is unlikely to be able to punish for lack of mobility.

We need to throw Andrew at Brown and try not to exchange him. In the case of a barrier, going into a double, trying to knock the ball out, forcing a difficult pass, this is not exactly what Brown feels comfortable in.

Size issue

Warriors essentially had two possible lineup models. The first is to release the big five with Looney and Green, drag in on shields and barricade the "paint". Or release a more throwing line-up, replacing Looney or Green with Porter or Moody to simplify his attack.

But often Warriors played both with a non-throwing squad and not a large one. In the second half, Looney and Green played together a little, but Iguodala got big minutes, who is never big and gives little on the boards, and at the same time he does not throw (he hit a couple of jumpers, but no one was going to defend against him on the arc).

Andre hasn't played for a month, he doesn't fit in here at all as a concept (and for the same reasons Peyton may not fit in). It is clear that Warriors do not have the personnel to play 2 "big" always, but when one of the "big" sits down, someone with a throw should replace him. Open / Comment

2022-06-04 18:18:41 I'm sorry, I forgot that the final is played in 2 days, I'm waiting too much... Open / Comment

2022-06-04 18:12:23 Hey Today only small bets, i don't now who win this game, it's crazy final

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Celtics/Warriors Double Result (Celtics win 1 half, Warriors game) - for fun

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