2022-01-03 08:46:11
The electric car revolution: is it realistic or optimistic?
Governments and motor manufacturers around the world are throwing money and resources into the development of electric vehicles. But can electric power really replace the internal combustion engine before the middle of the century? Maybe it can, but this is by no means certain. Electric
vehicles have arrived. With technology led by Tesla, and all of the world's major car manufacturers following along behind, electric vehicles are now a common
sight on the roads of most developed countries. Yet the situation in less developed countries is rather different; the only African country to have started the change to electric vehicles is South Africa and even there, electric vehicles still
account for less than 0.01% of the total number of cars on the roads. In South America, the situation is better, with all Latin American countries beginning the move towards electric vehicles, particularly Columbia which, in 2020, had a third of the continent's total electric car
fleet. In Russia,
the wealthy are investing in imported electric cars, but no electric cars are yet
manufactured locally, while in India the government is promoting
the purchase of electric vehicles with tax
exemptions and other
incentives. So electric cars have arrived, and their share of the market is increasing almost worldwide.
Does this mean, therefore, that the world is
on track to phase out the use of petrol-driven vehicles in less than thirty years? And does it mean that electric vehicles are the
sustainable solution to our transport needs for the second half of the century? Unfortunately, to the disappointment of some people, the answer to both of these questions has to be "no".
The massive development of electric vehicles can only be possible if two conditions are met. Firstly the expansion of electric vehicle manufacturing is dependent on the fragile ability of manufacturers to source vastly increased quantities of vital
components and elements without which electric vehicles cannot operate; these include lithium, cobalt and "rare earths" such as neodymium and tantalum, as well as silicon chips which have already
been in short supply since 2020. Secondly, few countries currently have electricity
grids that are anywhere near being able to cope with the huge increase in demand for electricity that will accompany any rapid growth in electric vehicle ownership. Without adequate
supplies of all the vital ingredients of electric motors and batteries, or without
power supplies that are able to provide the electricity needed to recharge millions of electric batteries every day (as well as supplying the current we need for everything else, such as lighting, heating, trains and electric
devices), the electric car revolution will
run up against insoluble problems.
Governments and vehicle manufacturers
are fully aware of these issues, but the consensus among policy-makers seems to be that somehow technology will come up with the answers, as it often has in the past. Analysts also predict that changing social attitudes and environmental awareness will lead to a reduction in private vehicle use and a fall in the numbers of vehicles on the roads. This prediction is likely to be right, though not necessarily for those reasons alone; any
shortage of essential components will force up the cost of electric vehicles, and any shortage of battery recharging facilities or capacity will discourage people from buying electric vehicles, leading to a fall in the number of vehicles on the roads.
Ultimately the success of the transition to electric powered vehicles will depend on advances in technology in three fields; the weight of batteries, the amount of power that they can produce, and the speed at which they can be recharged... or exchanged.
It may surprise you to learn that electric vehicles are not a new idea; indeed, at the start of the automobile age in the late 19th century, America had as many electric cars as
gas-driven cars, and New York's biggest taxi company used electric vehicles.
933 viewsSirojiddin Malikov, 05:46
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